Project library
COVID-19 Outbreak Drivers
Explore early warning signals for ICU strain and the factors behind them.
COVID Outbreak Drivers
Explore historical ICU utilization and an experimental risk score by state and date.
Start with a state's historical ICU utilization and exploratory risk score, then explore the trend and map.
- Explore the bundled historical risk scores; the dashboard runs in your browser.
- Drag the date slider to move through time.
- Choose a state or territory from the menu, or select a state on the map.
- Expand Risk drivers and hotspots for supporting detail.
STAR Summary
- Situation
- Using 2020-2023 HHS hospital-capacity data, I built an early-warning model to flag states at risk of crossing 90% ICU utilization in the next 7 days.
- Task
- Develop an early-warning model that flags states at risk of exceeding 90% ICU utilization within seven days and explains the main risk drivers.
- Action
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- Cleaned and enriched 50k+ rows from the HHS hospital-capacity time series; added rolling stats, trends, and 1/3/7/14-day lag features.
- Trained an XGBoost classifier with class-imbalance weighting and a strict time-based train/test split.
- Result
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- Used SHAP to highlight the top drivers and embedded an interactive plot in the report.
- Top driver was the share of ICU beds occupied by COVID patients.
- Exported daily, per-state risk scores (probability of breaching 90% ICU utilization within 7 days).
