Demo
Explore how ICU breach risk changes over time, and what’s driving it.
- Wait for the status pill to show the demo is ready (cold starts can take a moment).
- Drag the date slider to move through time.
- Hover or click a state to see its risk score, top drivers, and recent trend.
- Use the hotspots list to quickly jump to the highest-risk locations.
STAR Summary
- Situation
- Using 2020-2023 HHS hospital-capacity data, I built an early-warning model to flag states at risk of crossing 90% ICU utilization in the next 7 days.
- Task
- Owned the end-to-end build, from implementation through the final deliverable.
- Action
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- Cleaned and enriched 50k+ rows from the HHS hospital-capacity time series; added rolling stats, trends, and 1/3/7/14-day lag features.
- Trained an XGBoost classifier with class-imbalance weighting and a strict time-based train/test split.
- Result
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- Used SHAP to highlight the top drivers and embedded an interactive plot in the report.
- Top driver was the share of ICU beds occupied by COVID patients.
- Exported daily, per-state risk scores (probability of breaching 90% ICU utilization within 7 days).
Links
Data Links
Notes
The model is a 7-day state-level ICU breach risk scorer based on HHS hospital-capacity data, not a clinical forecast.
